“Life is like a box of chocolates,” Forrest Gump memorably told us. “You never know what you’re gonna get.”
Yet Valentine’s Day is one day that simply demands a box of the sweet stuff: 92% of Americans hope to receive chocolate for the holiday, and if they think they’re not gonna get it on their own, about half plan to treat themselves, according to the National Confectioners Association (NCA), even as prices for chocolate remain elevated thanks to persistent inflation throughout the candy supply chain.
An unprecedented spike in prices in 2025 took chocolate prices up 12% for U.S. brands, according to data from the Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute. That’s because West Africa, where about 70% of the world’s cocoa is produced, continues to struggle with weather issues, disease, and aging tree stock.
Producer prices have dropped since, but it will take a while for those declines to work their way through the supply chain to the inventory that consumers shop. David Branch, sector manager for the Wells Fargo institute, expects it to be mid-2026 when those lower prices hit the shelves.
“Despite higher prices, consumers are still indulging this Valentine’s Day,” Branch told USA TODAY in an email, “and chocolate remains a favorite, even if saving means skipping the heart shape.”
‘The most iconic’ type of chocolate for Valentine’s Day
Indeed, the heart-shaped box is “the most iconic” of all Valentine’s Day options, the NCA says, and 55% of Americans view receiving a box of chocolates for the holiday as the warmest gesture, trouncing the 7% who think that honor is reserved for personalized conversation hearts.
Meanwhile, despite Forrest Gump’s insight about the unknowns inside every box of chocolates, some 43% of Americans do consult the guide that comes with most boxes before selecting a treat. Roughly one-quarter of us confess to nibbling the corners of the chocolates, and 10% say they poke the bottoms.
Valentine’s Day is one of the candy industry’s “big four” seasons, which also include Easter, Halloween, and winter holidays, NCA notes. Together those holidays account for 62% of what was a $54 billion confectionery industry in 2024, with Valentine’s Day representing 12.4% of that total.
No matter the cost, consumers still turn to candy and chocolate to help them celebrate important dates like Valentine’s Day, an NCA spokesperson told USA TODAY in an email.
“Importantly, most consumers see chocolate and candy as an affordable treat, and they appreciate the special role treats play in sweetening memories and bringing friends and family closer together. On Valentine’s Day, sharing chocolate and candy is really about love, connection, and joy,” the spokesperson said.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: It wouldn’t be Valentine’s Day without chocolate, no matter the cost
Reporting by Andrea Riquier, USA TODAY / USA TODAY
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect